RealClearPolitics depicts my beloved Michigan Congressional District 7 as such for the 2010 race.

Michigan 7th District – Walberg vs. Schauer

Candidates

Mark SchauerMark Schauer (D)*
Bio | Campaign Site
Tim WalbergTim Walberg (R)
Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2010 Key Races:
Governor | MI-1 | MI-9 | MI-15

———-PAST KEY RACES———-


2008:
President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Schauer (D) Walberg (R) Spread
EPIC-MRA 10/16 – 10/17 400 LV 45 39 Schauer +6
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D) 9/25 – 9/27 404 LV 41 41 Tie
Rossman Group (D) 9/20 – 9/20 300 LV 38 42 Walberg +4
AAF/Ayers (R) 8/16 – 8/18 400 LV 40 50 Walberg +10
WeAskAmerica 8/4 – 8/4 1008 RV 37 45 Walberg +8

Race Analysis

10/27/10 — The latest poll shows Schauer in the lead, though still below 50 percent.  There’s still plenty of undecideds for either member to win this one.
10/6/10 –This race is a bit different from other races involving incumbents at 39 percent because Walberg is a former incumbent.  Regardless, it is still an awfully ugly number for Congressman Schauer, and given the national mood and the swing nature of the district, it looks like he has a pretty high hill to climb to get back to Washington.

———-Race Preview———

The 7th District is a collection of districts in south central Michigan stretching from the Indiana border to the outer reaches of the state capitol in Lansing. The largest metro area is Battle Creek, and nearly half of the district’s population is categorized by the census as “rural.” Despite the district’s historic Republican tilt, today it is competitive political territory, giving Barack Obama 52 percent of the vote in 2008 and George Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, roughly at their national averages.
Nick Smith held the district without much competition from 1992 through 2004. He retired that year, and the district elected Joe Schwarz, a decidedly moderate Republican who had lost the 1992 primary to Smith. Schwarz was upset in the 2006 primary by Tim Walberg, a former minister and a much more conservative Republican, who barely squeaked past an underfunded Democrat. In 2008, Walberg was defeated by Mark Schauer.
Schauer’s voting record is fairly liberal; he earned a 100 percent rating from Americans for Democratic Action in 2009. His saving grace might be facing off once again against Walberg. This will be a hard-fought race between two candidates whose positions are probably both a touch out-of-step with the median voter in the district. 

Previous Election Results

  2008: Schauer (D) 49%, Walberg (R) 47%   2008: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 46%
  2006: Walberg (R) 50%, Renier (R) 46%   2004: Bush (R) 54%, Kerry (D) 45%
  2004: Schwarz (R) 58%, Renier (D) 36%   2000: Bush (R) 53%, Gore (D) 47%

MI7

About Us | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy         © RealClearPolitics 2010

This is much too close for my taste.